Silver is Vastly Overvalued, But Retail Demand Could Lift it to $170
  • 16 Jan 2026
  • Hs-markets

Silver is Vastly Overvalued, But Retail Demand Could Lift it to $170

Silver has sharply outperformed in recent months, with prices posting gains in days that previously took months or even years to achieve. The move has been described by analysts as "unusually strong." Silver Futures are already up over 25% year-to-date, which is unprecedented. An important aspect of this rally is a growing role for retail participation, setting silver apart from other precious metals and broader commodity markets.

Historically, silver prices have been explained by the U.S. dollar, global industrial production, and ETF inflows. Widmer said that if retail investors continue to increase exposure at the same pace seen in the third quarter of 2025, silver could extend much further.

“We can justify silver rallying to $170/oz in the next two years if retail investors keep increasing their exposure at the same pace,” he wrote, while stressing that this scenario is “a tall order and not necessarily our base case.”

"This underscores the powerful impact of retail flows on the market," he added.

Beyond price momentum, Bank of America highlighted silver’s renewed role as a hedge against broader monetary concerns. Persistent anxiety around fiat currencies, the rise of crypto and stablecoins, and potential disruptions to traditional banking systems are reinforcing "silver’s appeal as a tangible, non-digital store of value remains strong for retail investors," Widmer concluded.

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